Winning Fantasy Baseball by Larry Schechter

Author:Larry Schechter
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781937110581
Publisher: Emerald Book Company
Published: 2014-01-15T00:00:00+00:00

The Dilemma of Brandon Inge

Some people would argue that for some of these players I might do better if I wait. For example, if I bring up Inge fairly early, everyone still has plenty of money to spend and they still need a third baseman (or at least a corner or DH). So someone might be willing to pay $7 or $8 for him. On the other hand, if I wait, and hope that nobody else nominates him, when we get to the later stages some people won’t have a lot of money left and/or won’t have a spot for him on their roster. This could lead to a very nice price, maybe even less than my targeted $6.

This is certainly possible. But on the other hand, you can make just as strong a counterargument. If I bring him up early, many people will think “I don’t need or want Inge, because there are plenty of better options still available.” If I wait, there may be someone with too much money and too few decent players to spend it on, and they might pay more for Inge than they would have earlier.

So I can lose if I wait, and I can lose if I don’t wait. The bottom line is that Inge is on my target list for a reason. I value him at $9.5. The others’ values don’t go higher than $6. He went for $6 at CR and $7 at LABR. This means that few people besides me think he’s worth more than $6 or maybe $7. When his name comes up, it’s very likely that nobody else will be willing to go past $6. If he comes up before the late stages, nobody will have reason to (in their mind) overspend on him. If he comes up late, there’s a chance someone might have money to burn and feel justified to overspend.

A player like Inge does present a bit of a bidding dilemma. My hope is that I can get him for $6. There appears to be an excellent chance that I can. There’s even a possibility I’ll get him for $5. But there’s also a chance someone else will go to $7 or that someone will beat me to the $6 bid and I’ll need to go to $7.

If I have to pay $7 to land him, that’s a $2.5 discount, which is still a good deal. But I’m greedy, and I’d certainly prefer to get him for $6.

The dilemma is, do I bid $6 and hope that nobody is willing to go to $7? Or do I wait and let someone else bid $6, then trump them with a $7 bid, which almost certainly will be the winning bid?

I can try to be the person who bids $5, knowing there’s even a small chance I might get him for $5, and, if not, then being pretty certain I’ll safely get him for $7. Or I can be the person who bids $6, and hope it’s enough.

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